Investing.com – The pair tried to rally yesterday, a day after a hawkish Fed meeting took it to a new 20-plus year low, but sellers eventually held on, leaving the eurodollar hovering near Wednesday night lows this Friday morning. .
After a plus bas de 20 ans à 0.9809 dans la nuit de mercredi à jeudi, l’EUR/USD a en effet progressé jusqu’à un sommet intraday à 0.9906, avant d’annuler la totalité de ses gains au cours pm.
EUR/USD bounces then changes its mind
Recall that the aggressive comments of Isabel Schnaebel, a member of the ECB, had supported the Eurodollar yesterday morning, the latter stating that the central bank must continue to increase rates and warned that inflation could continue to rise despite the tightening of monetary policy. .
But that was not enough to sustain the euro against the dollar for long, knowing that the outlook still points to a widening of the rate spread between the Fed and the ECB, to the detriment of EUR/USD.
In addition, the European investor confidence index, the only important European statistic yesterday, was cause for a bad surprise, since the index for the month of September stood at -28.8 points compared to -25.8 expected, which added more pressure. in EUR/USD.
High risk day this Friday for the Euro Dollar
As for Friday, it will be at least as important as Wednesday for EUR/USD, except this time it is the European side of the equation that will be in the spotlight.
In fact, forex investors will take note of the preliminary figures for the European PMI indices for the month of September. In particular, we await the figures for France at 9:15 am, those for Germany at 9:30 am and those for the entire Eurozone at 10 am.
The consensus expects these indices to continue to fall, whether for the services PMI or the manufacturing PMI. Of course, even worse-than-expected numbers would be a huge downside for the euro, pointing to a further deterioration in the European economy that could prevent the ECB from tightening policy as much as needed to combat inflation.
Technical thresholds to watch in EUR/USD
Finally, from a chart point of view, we note that a short-term bottom now appears around 0.98/0.9810 on the short-term charts. Below this zone, it will be difficult to find credible supports, knowing that EUR/USD is approaching lows not seen since 2002, more than 20 years ago.
On the upside, 0.99 is the first resistance to watch out for, before 0.9950, then the key parity threshold.
Finally, note that taking a step back on the EUR/USD daily chart shows that the pair is still below the downtrend line that accompanies its drop from the peak in early February 2022.
Currently near 1.0125, this trend line needs to be crossed for the lower profile of the EUR/USD to start to improve.